Ask Perplexity AI: What Risks Does the Demographic Cliff Pose to College Towns?
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This column from Ira Bryck is part of a new series entitled “Ask Perplexity AI”. The columns will pose a question to Perplexity AI. Bryck understands that Artificial Intelligence is not Actual Intelligence, but it’s better than Real Stupid; and like life, it’s garbage in, garbage out. Read previous “Ask Perplexity AI” columns here.
The demographic cliff—a projected decline in college-aged students due to post-2008 recession birth rate drops—poses significant but varied risks to universities in Massachusetts and the Northeast. How does UMass Amherst compare to other institutions and what are the potential cascading effects of changing student demographics on Amherst’s non-student population?
I asked perplexity.ai the following: What risk does the demographic cliff pose to UMass Amherst and how does this risk compare to the risk that will be experienced by other Massachusetts and Northeastern Colleges and Universities? And will the reduction of students in a town like Amherst, which has 20,000 students and 20,000 non-students, result in decline of population of non-students, including faculty and staff that might live in Amherst, home of UMass Amherst, Hampshire College, and Amherst College?
Risks to UMass Amherst vs. Other Institutions
UMass Amherst
- Moderate enrollment pressure: While UMass faces flat enrollment growth (0.1% increase in 2025) and aging infrastructure, its status as a large public research university with broader geographic recruitment insulates it from the worst impacts. Admissions-sharing programs with other UMass campuses help mitigate declines.
- Advantages over smaller colleges: Unlike regional private schools (e.g., Eastern Nazarene College, which closed in 2024), UMass benefits from state funding, diversified revenue streams, and stronger brand recognition. Elite institutions like Amherst College are even more insulated due to their niche markets.
Other MA/Northeastern Universities
- Small private colleges: At least 25% of New England’s small private colleges are projected to close by 2040. Schools like Simmons University face existential threats from shrinking Massachusetts high school graduates (-3% by 2030) and reliance on tuition-dependent budgets.
- Regional public universities: Institutions without UMass’ scale may struggle with steeper enrollment drops (-15% projected for New England regional colleges) and limited resources to adapt.
Impact on Amherst’s Non-Student Population
Amherst’s unique balance of 20,000 students and 20,000 non-students faces destabilization from demographic shifts:
1. Economic Contraction
- Local business decline: Reduced student spending could shrink retail and service sectors, accelerating non-student outmigration. Towns like Quincy (post-Eastern Nazarene closure) saw similar ripple effects.
- Housing market instability: Private student housing oversupply (e.g., luxury dorms downtown) may lead to vacancies, depressing property values and tax revenues critical for town services.
2. Public Sector Strain
- School funding cuts: Amherst’s public schools face $3 million in cuts due to enrollment declines, risking teacher layoffs and program reductions. This could make the town less attractive to families, exacerbating population loss.
- Municipal budget tensions: Tax-exempt colleges (UMass, Amherst College) contribute limited revenue despite consuming town services, worsening fiscal gaps.
3. Faculty/Staff Exodus
- University downsizing: If UMass enrollment stagnates, hiring freezes or staff reductions could push employees to leave Amherst.
- Quality-of-life erosion: Cuts to schools, rising rents, and strained infrastructure may drive non-students to seek more affordable, family-friendly communities.
Long-Term Outlook
Amherst risks entering a downward cycle where student declines weaken the local economy and public services, prompting non-student departures. This contrasts with larger cities like Boston, which have more diversified economies to absorb shocks. Proactive measures—such as housing policy reforms, stronger university-town partnerships, and state funding adjustments—could mitigate these risks, but current trends suggest challenging decades ahead for college-dependent towns.